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Q&A: Is the VAERS Underreporting Factor Closer to 30 or 100?

Day 2 · 5:07:59 · Shawn Buckley · Dr. Jessica Rose · Marylou Lavalle

  • ❓ Buckley asks whether the v-safe-derived ~27 factor understates underreporting versus the Harvard Lazarus ~100× figure, given unknown app uptake.
  • 📐 Rose replies COVID-era awareness likely lowers the factor; her own Pfizer Phase 3–based calculation yields about 31, aligning with ~30.
  • 📈 Even 30× applied to nearly a million VAERS reports, she notes, still implies enormous real-world harm.

Counsel probes the underreporting multiplier Rose is using.

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Transcript

Shawn Buckley · 5:07:59

And can I just stop you and clarify? Because when you're saying 30, it's based on this reporting on an app, but—.

Dr. Jessica Rose · 5:08:08

No, this is different. This is VAERS. So v-safe is separate. That's the app. And VAERS is the online reporting system.

Shawn Buckley · 5:08:15

Right. But, but I just— what I want to understand is, is I think earlier you said based on, on this, this app reporting, you thought that VAERS was underreported about 27%, but we, we don't— we're assuming then that there's— that's compared to those two, but how many people use that app and download that app? I'm just curious if maybe the study by Harvard saying it's underreported by 100 might be correct.

Dr. Jessica Rose · 5:08:47

It could be, but that was in a different context. My belief is that because COVID was, you know, global, everybody knows about it. More people know about FAERS now. I'd say the underreporting factor in the context of the COVID shots is closer to 30. I've actually calculated this using Pfizer's phase 3 clinical trial data as well. I got 31. So it's in very strong alignment with my previous calculation.

Marylou Lavalle · 5:09:15

But you never know.

Shawn Buckley · 5:09:16

No, and I'm just asking the question and I understand that you have a PhD in computation.

Dr. Jessica Rose · 5:09:21

No, no, it's not just that. It's because I've been doing this for so long. I dare say it's closer to 30, which is still gross because when you multiply almost a million reports by 30, that's a lot. So a lot of people say that the numbers are much higher in VAERS because, you know, it's overreported and everybody knows about it. I'm going to These slides that I made today are going to blow all of those lies out of the water. So this slide represents the fact that, um, there are far more reports in VAERS in the US database than in Canada.